Practical Approaches to Theories of Change in Conflict, Security and Justice Programmes

This document provides guidelines for DFID staff to design and implement their programs effectively using a theory of change approach. According to the guide, a theory of change reflects, "why we think certain actions will produce desired change in a given context". The TOC may be presented in the following form: "We believe that if we do X, Y, and Z, it will lead to W" adding ‘because' to express the rational of a TOC. Thus, the formula becomes, "If we do X…., then Y…, Because Z…". This concept is elaborated and illustrated with examples from the contexts of Kosovo, South Sudan and Burundi. A step-by-step process for developing a TOC statement is provided, and this process is compared to the logic (logframe) model.

To use theory of change as a tool, in the context of fragile states or conflict situation in particular, the guide encourages a reality check on the following:

1. "System push back" or resistance to the proposed changes
2. "Other efforts running in parallel or running in support of initiatives at different levels"
3. "Do no harm/conflict sensitivity" because "flaws in the TOC can endanger people."

In conclusion, the guide maintains that a good TOC is:

1. Change-oriented
2. Clear and complete
3. Plausible
4. Testable
5. Embedded in context
6. Agreed upon by relevant stakeholders
7. Dynamic, and can be amended/updated whenever necessary.